Now that 2018 is well underway and the long. lazy holiday is all but forgotten, it’s back to business and, for most senior management anyways, a deep-dive into the consumer trends, scenarios and soothsayer-like ‘predictions’* for the year ahead.

But what practical value does this information really have?

Before we get into the answer to that question, it is useful to understand something fundamental about all business that many business people all too easily forget.

No company is an island.

Every single organisation operates within a larger contextual environment, which is constantly shifting and changing on multiple dimensions. In South Africa, the local contextual environment shifts on its head constantly; in particular our political, economic and social landscape is extremely fluid and volatile and we are unfortunately particularly susceptible to changes in the broader regional and international environments too (just think of how volatile our local currency is to the mood swings of global traders). Operating a business and offering a stable value proposition into this ever-changing landscape is treacherous for the uninformed.

And it is for this reason then, that organisations that practice an ongoing scanning of the changes in the environmental context are better prepared and more ready to shift themselves into the opportunities that present themselves as a result  of this understanding.

I would argue even further to say that a lack of this kind of proper foresight practice in a business that operates in South Africa in 2018 is downright irresponsible and reckless. To add to this, not all information that this foresight practice is based on is of equal worth. Much of it is produced more for entertainment value than as structured intelligence that should be taken seriously, so be very careful what trends and ‘predictions’ you take to heart.

But as strategies are finalised and budgets are signed off, the value of having a comprehensive understanding of context, and then the ongoing spotting of early changes to that context throughout 2018, is very useful for the effective execution of your plans to achieve the results you were hoping for.

As the speed of change accelerates into the future, having a pedantic, company-wide focus on context will certainly be an investment well made.

People worry about all sorts of irrational things, but – according to the experts at least – what should we really be focussing our ‘anxiety muscles’ on worrying about?

Annually the World Economic Forum publishes a very handy document entitled, the Global Risks Report, which to be honest – if you are thinking of doing a scenario planning exercise as part of your 2018 / 2020 strategy sessions – wouldn’t be a bad place to start if you are looking for a few key uncertainties to lock ‘n load into your scenarios framework.

At least thinking about how you, or your organisation, would respond to an escalation of any one of these threats would certainly not be a waste of time.

Global risks

These then are the WEF’s Top 5 ‘most likely to happen’ and Top 5 ‘most impactful’ global risks for 2017.

Already this year we have clearly witnessed how extreme weather has affected many regions of the world – not forgetting the fact that Cape Town is facing an extreme weather event of our own. Understandably – WATER CRISIS – is listed 3rd in their Top 5 risks that will have the most impact on society in their 2017 synopsis; a reality which we are all too well aware of.

Looking at the changing of the global risks since 2007 – it’s interesting to note how issues relating to the risks posed by environmental threats have steadily increased over the last decade.

South African risks

Focussing just on South Africa – these are the Top 10 Highest Risks for doing business in South Africa from a global perspective.

Each one of these appears to be increasing in strength as this year progresses and are clearly all interconnected. For example – as the issue of unemployment / inequality intensifies – the government in its wisdom is forced to resort to riskier financing options to keep at least some financial relief for the unemployed millions going, which is manifesting in the escalating fiscal crisis that we are now witnessing and putting the state at risk

All systems have a limit to their growth. For us – the global risks outlined here are a result of decades of excessive levels of resource-led economic growth and globalisation coming home to roost. There is only so much growth a system can handle before it is forced to rebalance…and often in not a very dignified manner.

What we really should be worried about is how we see the world.

We should worry about how we as society value hitting record highs on the stock market and our rampant consumerist culture above the eminent danger imposed by climate change as a direct consequence. We should worry that unemployment and inequality and the unjust socio-economic system that we have created isn’t something that we actively explore more deeply to try solve. We should worry that we are quite happy to see how far we can push these global risk factors without worrying about their long-term consequences.

In South Africa, children born after 1994 are known as ‘born free’.

Born free of an experience of Apartheid…born into a free, democratic country.

Now it’s unclear as to whether it was a consequence of finally achieving a democratic dispensation; or the excitement of seeing Nelson Mandela and Francois Pienaar holding the Webb Ellis trophy, but more babies were born after 1994 than ever before in South Africa.

The result is that in 2016, 50% of all South Africans (that’s 27 million people) can today be considered to be ‘born free’. That means that half of the country’s population is now below the age of 22.

Having been born free – these are the students who are demanding to be educated for free too.

Although right now the focus of this group’s unhappiness is on the subject of free education, the reality is that this particular issue is just the tip of the iceberg.

What’s really developing here is a perfect storm, created by a combination of challenges, which is guaranteed to make what we are seeing now with the #feesmustfall campaign, look like quiet trance party.

The global economy has ground to a halt and thanks to aging populations abroad, doesn’t exactly show a lot of promise of revival in the future. The South Africa economy has stalled and the private sector has very little appetite for expansion or job creation in the current environment. Automation, migrants from the rest of Africa, unprecedented peer-group competition, the collapse of the resource commodity ‘supercycle’ and a populist government who have made many promises and kept very few of them; are all factors which are combining perfectly to weave a thick blanket of desperation that smothers the future of today’s youth.

While obviously education is an important pillar of human development, it is just one aspect which needs to be urgently addressed by South African society to avoid an impending national disaster.

The structure of our entire economy needs to be redesigned so that there is fertile ground for these newly educated minds to flourish; otherwise all we are doing with free tertiary education is kicking the proverbial can down the road.

The National Development Plan (NDP) is a vital component of that possible solution, but after four years – the government still shows little interest in its actual implementation. Time is running out for us to fundamentally shift the focus of our economy. Modernising our collective future takes time, it can’t be effectively done overnight. And in the meantime, the frustration will manifest as fee protests, service delivery demonstrations and increasing levels of violent anarchy.

As many people who have spent time in rehab will know, the first step to salvation is to admit that you have a problem. And then to have a clear understanding of what that problem really is.

Our problem is not just about how education is funded in South Africa. It’s far deeper and complex than that. What’s needed is an honest assessment, of ‘where it is we are going’ and ‘where we would like to go’ as a society; followed by a collective effort to make sure that we structure our institutions and approach to achieve that ambition effectively. It’s an effort which demands that government, academia, labour, the youth and business work together.

The clock is ticking…

It’s going to take leadership and some maturity and will have to be done fairly quickly. Otherwise, our ‘born frees’ are going to lose hope with the promise they were granted by the name they were offered when they emerged as young South Africans. And under that scenario, nobody wins and nobody will be free.