The classic business school bell-curve.

At one stage, Blackberry was the hottest brand in South Africa. Every kid wanted to own the device which was a symbol of the new mobile age.

But Blackberry was arrogant.

They overestimated their own brand appeal and got killed by Apple and Samsung in the global fight for ‘share of mind’. They most probably didn’t even see it coming. Blindsided by their own brilliance – Blackberry ignored the forces for change that were happening around them and slowly dug themselves into a shallow grave.

To be honest – you could copy and paste this sentiment and replace all reference to Blackberry with the word ‘Nokia’ too.

It may be hard to remember in 2016, but BlackBerry was once not just a dominant force, but an innovative one, with handsets beloved by businesses, politicians, and fast-typists around the world. via

BlackBerry is handing over production of the phones to overseas partners and turning its full attention to the more profitable and growing software business. It’s the formalization of a move in the making since Chief Executive Officer John Chen took over nearly three years ago and outsourced some manufacturing to Foxconn Technology Group. Getting the money-losing smartphone business off BlackBerry’s books will also make it easier for the company to consistently hit profitability. via

In summary, this comedy skit, featuring the legendary Ronnie Corbett, seems to put a nice neat bow around the whole thing:

Related: Why it’s vital to know what’s going on in the world – LinkedIn

In South Africa, children born after 1994 are known as ‘born free’.

Born free of an experience of Apartheid…born into a free, democratic country.

Now it’s unclear as to whether it was a consequence of finally achieving a democratic dispensation; or the excitement of seeing Nelson Mandela and Francois Pienaar holding the Webb Ellis trophy, but more babies were born after 1994 than ever before in South Africa.

The result is that in 2016, 50% of all South Africans (that’s 27 million people) can today be considered to be ‘born free’. That means that half of the country’s population is now below the age of 22.

Having been born free – these are the students who are demanding to be educated for free too.

Although right now the focus of this group’s unhappiness is on the subject of free education, the reality is that this particular issue is just the tip of the iceberg.

What’s really developing here is a perfect storm, created by a combination of challenges, which is guaranteed to make what we are seeing now with the #feesmustfall campaign, look like quiet trance party.

The global economy has ground to a halt and thanks to aging populations abroad, doesn’t exactly show a lot of promise of revival in the future. The South Africa economy has stalled and the private sector has very little appetite for expansion or job creation in the current environment. Automation, migrants from the rest of Africa, unprecedented peer-group competition, the collapse of the resource commodity ‘supercycle’ and a populist government who have made many promises and kept very few of them; are all factors which are combining perfectly to weave a thick blanket of desperation that smothers the future of today’s youth.

While obviously education is an important pillar of human development, it is just one aspect which needs to be urgently addressed by South African society to avoid an impending national disaster.

The structure of our entire economy needs to be redesigned so that there is fertile ground for these newly educated minds to flourish; otherwise all we are doing with free tertiary education is kicking the proverbial can down the road.

The National Development Plan (NDP) is a vital component of that possible solution, but after four years – the government still shows little interest in its actual implementation. Time is running out for us to fundamentally shift the focus of our economy. Modernising our collective future takes time, it can’t be effectively done overnight. And in the meantime, the frustration will manifest as fee protests, service delivery demonstrations and increasing levels of violent anarchy.

As many people who have spent time in rehab will know, the first step to salvation is to admit that you have a problem. And then to have a clear understanding of what that problem really is.

Our problem is not just about how education is funded in South Africa. It’s far deeper and complex than that. What’s needed is an honest assessment, of ‘where it is we are going’ and ‘where we would like to go’ as a society; followed by a collective effort to make sure that we structure our institutions and approach to achieve that ambition effectively. It’s an effort which demands that government, academia, labour, the youth and business work together.

The clock is ticking…

It’s going to take leadership and some maturity and will have to be done fairly quickly. Otherwise, our ‘born frees’ are going to lose hope with the promise they were granted by the name they were offered when they emerged as young South Africans. And under that scenario, nobody wins and nobody will be free.

Brexit is now, unbelievably, a reality. But is this just the beginning of the collapse of ‘the European project’ that was highlighted as a major global risk by the National Intelligence Council in their Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds document?

They nicknamed this possible global future scenario ‘Stalled Engines’:

Stalled Engines—a scenario in which the US and Europe turn inward and globalization stalls—as one of the bookends, illustrating the most plausible worst case. Arguably, darker scenarios are imaginable, including a complete breakdown and reversal of globalization due to a potential large-scale conflict on the order of World War I or World War II, but such an outcome does not seem probable.

We believe the risks of interstate conflict will rise, but we do not expect bilateral conflict to ignite a full-scale conflagration. Moreover, unlike in the interwar period, the complete unraveling of economic interdependence or globalization would be more difficult—and therefore less likely—in this more advanced technological age with ubiquitous connections. Stalled Engines is nevertheless a bleak future.

Our modeling suggests that under this scenario total global income would be $27 trillion less than under Fusion, our most optimistic scenario. This amount is more than the combined economies of the US and euro zone today. In a Stalled Engines world, the US and Europe are no longer capable nor interested in sustaining global leadership. The US political system fails to address its fiscal challenges and consequently economic policy and performance drift.

The European project unravels. Greece’s Britain’s exit from the euro zone European Union triggers the rapid, unmanaged exit of the rest of the periphery. More nationalist, even nativist, parties rise to claim positions of influence in coalition governments.

By the 2020s, it looks like only a limited free trade zone will remain. Economic growth continues in major emerging markets and accounts for approximately three quarters of global growth. Nonetheless, fundamental economic and political reforms remain elusive in China and India.

Corruption, social unrest, weak financial systems, and chronically poor infrastructures slow their growth rates. China’s growth falls, for example, from 8 percent at the start of the period to around 3 percent by 2030. As pressures grow everywhere for disengagement and protectionism, the global governance system is unable to cope with a widespread pandemic that triggers panic. Rich countries wall themselves off from many developing and poor countries in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. By disrupting international travel and trade, the severe pandemic helps to stall out, but does not kill globalization.

What does Brexit mean for emerging markets?

Brexit could well be the signal that the global economy has entered the proposed Stalled Engines scenario. Although this is certainly a dystopian reality for developed economies; younger, emerging regions need strong leadership to step forward and rapidly fast track collaborative trade strategies with each other  that mitigate the knock-on effects of this crisis. With less reliance on the ‘fearful & aged’ West – a preferred future for the likes of Asia, Africa and South America is certainly plausible through better coordinated co-operation.